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BondBERT: What we learn when assigning sentiment in the bond market
Barter, Toby, Gao, Zheng, Christodoulaki, Eva, Chen, Jing, Cartlidge, John
Bond markets respond differently to macroeconomic news compared to equity markets, yet most sentiment models are trained primarily on general financial or equity news data. However, bond prices often move in the opposite direction to economic optimism, making general or equity-based sentiment tools potentially misleading. We introduce BondBERT, a transformer-based language model fine-tuned on bond-specific news. BondBERT can act as the perception and reasoning component of a financial decision-support agent, providing sentiment signals that integrate with forecasting models. We propose a generalisable framework for adapting transformers to low-volatility, domain-inverse sentiment tasks by compiling and cleaning 30,000 UK bond market articles (2018-2025). BondBERT's sentiment predictions are compared against FinBERT, FinGPT, and Instruct-FinGPT using event-based correlation, up/down accuracy analyses, and LSTM forecasting across ten UK sovereign bonds. We find that BondBERT consistently produces positive correlations with bond returns, and achieves higher alignment and forecasting accuracy than the three baseline models. These results demonstrate that domain-specific sentiment adaptation better captures fixed income dynamics, bridging a gap between NLP advances and bond market analytics.
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Extracting Disaster Impacts and Impact Related Locations in Social Media Posts Using Large Language Models
Hameed, Sameeah Noreen, Ranathunga, Surangika, Prasanna, Raj, Stock, Kristin, Jones, Christopher B.
Large-scale disasters can often result in catastrophic consequences on people and infrastructure. Situation awareness about such disaster impacts generated by authoritative data from in-situ sensors, remote sensing imagery, and/or geographic data is often limited due to atmospheric opacity, satellite revisits, and time limitations. This often results in geo-temporal information gaps. In contrast, impact-related social media posts can act as "geo-sensors" during a disaster, where people describe specific impacts and locations. However, not all locations mentioned in disaster-related social media posts relate to an impact. Only the impacted locations are critical for directing resources effectively. e.g., "The death toll from a fire which ripped through the Greek coastal town of #Mati stood at 80, with dozens of people unaccounted for as forensic experts tried to identify victims who were burned alive #Greecefires #AthensFires #Athens #Greece." contains impacted location "Mati" and non-impacted locations "Greece" and "Athens". This research uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to identify all locations, impacts and impacted locations mentioned in disaster-related social media posts. In the process, LLMs are fine-tuned to identify only impacts and impacted locations (as distinct from other, non-impacted locations), including locations mentioned in informal expressions, abbreviations, and short forms. Our fine-tuned model demonstrates efficacy, achieving an F1-score of 0.69 for impact and 0.74 for impacted location extraction, substantially outperforming the pre-trained baseline. These robust results confirm the potential of fine-tuned language models to offer a scalable solution for timely decision-making in resource allocation, situational awareness, and post-disaster recovery planning for responders.
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- Europe > Switzerland > Zürich > Zürich (0.14)
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